Income vs. House Price Analysis

Visualizing the collapse of housing affordability over the last decade

Select Provinces/Territories to Display

Click to toggle provinces on/off in the historical charts below

Income vs House Price Trends (2015-2024)

Comparison of house price growth vs median income growth. Static visualization for maximum performance.

$300k$60k$540k$70k$780k$80k$1020k$90k$1260k$100k$1500k$110kPRICESINCOME201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
British Columbia
Ontario
Alberta
Quebec
National Median Income

Cumulative Growth Contrast (Base Year 2015)

Percentage growth of house prices vs income. This chart normalizes all data to zero in 2015 to show the relative speed of appreciation.

-6%+23%+52%+82%+111%+140%201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026
BC Price Growth
ON Price Growth
AB Price Growth
QC Price Growth
Income Growth

Analyzing the Disconnect

This dual-axis visualization compares **Home Prices** (solid lines) against **National Median Income** (dashed line). In a healthy economy, these lines should track closely together, as housing costs are ultimately capped by what people earn.

The "Perfect" Ratio

Historically, the "Goldilocks" zone for a stable economy is when home prices grow at roughly the same rate as CPI inflation or wage growth (approx 2-3% per year).

Historical Context

  • 1

    The 2015 Inflection: Notice the sharp upward trajectory shift beginning in 2015. This marks the start of the "ultra-low rate" era that decoupled prices from wages.

  • 2

    The Pandemic Spike: The vertical surge between 2020 and 2022 represents the largest widening of the gap in Canadian history.

  • 3

    Wage Stagnation: While prices surged, median incomes grew incrementally, creating the housing "inaccessibility" crisis we see today.

Income vs Price History

YearIncome (Growth %)BC Price (Growth %)ON Price (Growth %)AB Price (Growth %)QC Price (Growth %)
2026
$102,000
+50.0% since '15
$1,200,000
+57.7% growth
$1,105,000
+77.2% growth
$655,000
+39.6% growth
$645,000
+90.8% growth
2025
$98,000
+44.1% since '15
$1,185,000
+55.7% growth
$1,085,000
+74.0% growth
$635,000
+35.3% growth
$625,000
+84.9% growth
2024
$95,000
+39.7% since '15
$1,171,500
+54.0% growth
$1,087,017
+74.3% growth
$605,026
+28.9% growth
$609,992
+80.5% growth
2023
$90,000
+32.4% since '15
$1,170,000
+53.8% growth
$1,131,290
+81.4% growth
$569,168
+21.3% growth
$566,700
+67.7% growth
2022
$86,000
+26.5% since '15
$1,114,300
+46.4% growth
$1,458,035
+133.8% growth
$548,800
+16.9% growth
$550,000
+62.7% growth
2021
$82,000
+20.6% since '15
$1,230,200
+61.7% growth
$1,342,444
+115.3% growth
$490,000
+4.4% growth
$520,000
+53.8% growth
2020
$78,000
+14.7% since '15
$1,047,400
+37.7% growth
$929,699
+49.1% growth
$449,580
+-4.2% growth
$457,900
+35.5% growth
2019
$75,000
+10.3% since '15
$1,001,000
+31.6% growth
$883,520
+41.7% growth
$469,916
+0.1% growth
$406,332
+20.2% growth
2018
$74,000
+8.8% since '15
$1,032,400
+35.7% growth
$787,300
+26.3% growth
$475,160
+1.2% growth
$407,230
+20.5% growth
2017
$72,000
+5.9% since '15
$1,050,300
+38.0% growth
$822,681
+31.9% growth
$481,000
+2.5% growth
$364,510
+7.8% growth
2016
$70,000
+2.9% since '15
$897,600
+18.0% growth
$729,922
+17.1% growth
$440,650
+-6.1% growth
$342,000
+1.2% growth
2015
$68,000
+0.0% since '15
$760,900
+0.0% growth
$623,531
+0.0% growth
$469,337
+0.0% growth
$338,000
+0.0% growth

The Speculative Premium

When home prices grow at 10% per year while wages grow at 2%, the "gap" is filled by debt and speculation. In many Canadian markets, housing has transitioned from a utility (shelter) to a highly leveraged investment vehicle.

This chart proves that current prices are not supported by the local economy. They are supported by high leverage, parent-assisted down payments ("The Bank of Mom and Dad"), and the belief that prices will always rise.

Consequences of the Gap

The widening gap has profound societal impacts:

  • Delayed Household Formation: Young Canadians are delaying marriage and children because of housing costs.
  • Labor Shortages: Essential workers (teachers, nurses) can no longer afford to live in the cities they serve.
  • Wealth Inequality: A massive transfer of wealth from non-owners to owners (and from young to old).

Real vs. Nominal

While "nominal" wages have increased, "real" wages (adjusted for the cost of living) have struggled to keep pace with the massive surge in essential costs like rent and mortgages.

Economic Warning

Canada currently has the highest household debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7, primarily due to this massive price-income disconnect.