Analyzing Year-over-Year price velocity across major Canadian metros
Tracking change in home price growth rates based on the average of all reporting provinces.
15% tax introduced to cool Metro Vancouver.
15% Non-Resident Speculation Tax introduced.
B-20 guidelines required 2% buffer on mortgage rates.
BoC dropped rates to 0.25% due to Pandemic.
Record low inventory meets record low interest rates.
Aggressive BoC hikes start in March (0.25% to 4.25%).
BoC begins easing cycle in June as inflation cools.
Annual price change percentage by city. Static high-performance visualization.
Year-over-Year (YoY) change is the most sensitive indicator of market health. It tells us whether the market is currently heating up (Positive) or cooling down (Negative).
The Correction Phase: Markets with negative YoY percentages are currently in a price correction, likely driven by high interest rates and buyer exhaustion.
Resilient Markets: Some regions remain positive (e.g., Calgary) due to relative affordability and strong inter-provincial migration.
Velocity Matters: It's not just whether prices are up, but how fast. A drop from +20% to +2% is a massive deceleration in momentum.
| City | Current Price | YoY Change % |
|---|---|---|
| Quebec City | $415,000 | +7.8% |
| Saint John | $315,000 | +6.8% |
| Edmonton | $445,000 | +4.7% |
| Moncton | $395,000 | +4.2% |
| Montreal | $585,000 | +3.5% |
| London | $615,000 | +3.4% |
| Calgary | $635,000 | +3.2% |
| St. John's | $335,000 | +3.1% |
| Regina | $355,000 | +2.9% |
| Winnipeg | $375,000 | +2.7% |
| Iqaluit | $565,000 | +2.7% |
| Halifax | $595,000 | +2.6% |
| Saskatoon | $405,000 | +2.5% |
| Charlottetown | $435,000 | +2.4% |
| Yellowknife | $495,000 | +2.1% |
| Whitehorse | $575,000 | +1.8% |
| Ottawa | $675,000 | +1.7% |
| Victoria | $910,000 | +1.5% |
| Kitchener-Waterloo | $735,000 | +1.4% |
| Kelowna | $795,000 | +1.3% |
| Vancouver | $1,185,000 | -3.2% |
| Toronto | $1,085,000 | -4.5% |
| Hamilton | $795,000 | -5.2% |
Double-digit YoY growth (e.g., +15% per year) is almost never sustainable. It often signals a speculative bubble where buyers are rushing in due to "Fear Of Missing Out" (FOMO) rather than changes in economic fundamentals.
In Canada, we saw many markets grow 20%+ during 2021. The current trend is a reversion to the mean—where those vertical gains are being "given back" as the market searches for a new, stable floor.
Looking back at the last 10 years, we can see that market "velocity" is highly sensitive to policy intervention. The introduction of Foreign Buyers Taxes in 2016 (BC) and 2017 (ON) successfully produced short-term "cooling" periods.
However, the most significant driver remains Interest Rates. The vertical spike of 2021 was a direct consequence of emergency pandemic-era rates, while the current "flatness" or negative territory in 2024 is the result of the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s.
History shows that price corrections in Canada tend to be slow and "sticky" due to low supply and strong immigration, even when momentum drops into negative territory.
Real estate prices are famously "sticky" on the way down. Unlike stocks, homeowners are often unwilling to sell at a loss, choosing instead to stay in their homes and wait for prices to recover.
This creates a standoff: sellers want 2022 prices, while buyers can only afford 2019 prices due to higher interest rates. This is why we often see **declining volume** (number of sales) before we see major **declining prices**.
Changes in interest rates usually take 12-18 months to fully manifest in house prices. We are still seeing the tail-end effects of the 2023 rate hikes.
A negative YoY change is what some call a "buyer's market." It provides more room for negotiation and reduces the stress of bidding wars.
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