The New Reality: "Income-Only" vs. "Equity-Rich" (2025 Market)
Let's be real. If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop back to 2019 levels, you're likely going to get left behind.
The Canadian housing market isn't crashing—it's evolving into a new, tougher beast. We're seeing a clear divide: the "have-equity" crowd and the "have-not" crowd fighting for what's left.
The "Interest Rate Pivot" Myth
Everyone talked about the Bank of Canada cutting rates as if it would magically fix affordability. It hasn't.
- The Reality: We are settling into a "new normal" of 4% to 5% mortgages. The days of 1.99% fixed rates are gone.
- Advice: Stop trying to time the absolute bottom. If you find a house you can afford today, buy it. Waiting for a 0.25% cut might cost you $50k in competing bids.
The Supply Closet is Empty
No policy has fixed the structural lack of family homes.
- Condos: Toronto has a glut of 500-sq-ft cells.
- Houses: Finding a 3-bedroom townhome for under $900k in the GTA is like finding a unicorn.
- Lock-In Effect: Sellers with 2.5% mortgages aren't moving. They are renovating. This keeps inventory artificially low.
The Great Migration 2.0
"Alberta Calling" is old news. Calgary spiked 15%.
- The New Trade: "Secondary-Tertiary" markets. Moncton, Winnipeg, or the "Commutable Halo" (Barrie, Guelph, Abbotsford).
- Lifestyle Arbitrage: Employers recall workers, so the 1.5-hour drive zone is the new hot zone.
Policy Roulette
The 30-Year Amortization is the only policy moving the needle.
- Verdict: It's a bailout disguised as help. It lowers your monthly payment but increases your total debt. It's a trap, but it might be the only door open.
Bottom Line
The "dream home" as a first purchase is dead. The goal is to get on the ladder, build equity, and maybe move up in 7 years. It's not romantic, but it's the reality.