Jan 10, 2025
BubbleWatch News
Policy
The 30-Year Trap: Savior or shackle?
The 30-year amortization is back. Is it a gift for first-time buyers or a debt sentence? Let's run the math.
The Payment Illusion
Scenario: buying a $700,000 townhome (10% down). Mortgage: ~$650k.
- 25-Year Amortization: ~$3,600/mo
- 30-Year Amortization: ~$3,300/mo
- Difference: $300/mo. That's groceries. It's the difference between "Approved" and "Rejected."
The Cost of "Breathing Room"
By extending the loan 5 years, you aren't just paying longer; you're compounding interest longer.
- The Cost: You pay an extra $115,000 in interest over the life of the loan.
- The Reality: You are buying a house + a luxury car for the Bank CEO.
It Fuels Price Growth
If buyers can afford a higher "monthly payment," sellers will just raise prices. The 30-year amort essentially increases the budget of every buyer, which pushes entry-level prices up.
Strategy: "Start 30, Pay 25"
If you take the 30-year option:
- Use it to Qualify: Get the loan.
- Automate Overpayment: Set your payments to match the 25-year schedule immediately.
- The Benefit: You have the flexibility to drop payments if you lose your job, but you avoid the interest penalty if you stay employed.
Conclusion
It's a power tool. Used carelessly, it cuts off your leg. Used wisely, it builds a house.
BubbleWatch Insight