Is the Canadian Housing Bubble Finally Bursting?

The Bubble Already Popped (You Missed It)

I've been hearing "the bubble is bursting" since 2012. Here is the controversial truth: It already popped.

The "Silent Crash" (2022-2024)

Prices dropped 15% nominally, but inflation was 8%+. In "Real Terms" (purchasing power), homes got significantly cheaper. We didn't get the "50% Off" sale, but the correction happened.

Why Canada Won't Be 2008 USA

1. Recourse Mortgages: You can't just walk away. The bank can garnish your wages for life. Canadians will eat Kraft Dinner for 5 years before defaulting.
2. The Stress Test: We've been vetting buyers at 7% rates since 2018. The system is robust.
3. Population Growth: We import 500k+ people a year. That creates a titanium floor for demand.

The Real Trouble: Investor Condos

The "Bubble" is in negative cash-flow condos.

• The Math: Mortgage = $3,800. Rent = $2,500. Loss = $1,300/mo.
• The Opportunity: If you want a deal in 2025, look for desperate landlords selling 1-bedroom downtown units.

The "Slow Grind"

Forget the crash. Prepare for a decade of flat prices (rising slightly below inflation). This allows wages to catch up slowly.

• Verdict: Don't flip. Buy to live. If you hold for 10 years, the "bubble" talk is irrelevant noise.